February 2011: Overview of the 2012 Election Cycle
Bill McInturff has released a very interesting overview of the 2012 elections. The analysis focuses on the seven key factors impacting the Presidential election, the impact of the Tea Party, and the...
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How Long Will President Obama’s Job Approval Bump Last?
Not including the post-9/11 response, the average presidential approval rating bumps up 13% for an average of 22 weeks.
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Consequences of the Debt Ceiling Negotiations
The Iranian hostage crisis, Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, 9/11, Hurricane Katrina, Lehman Brother’s collapse and the recessions that defined the 1980, 1992 and the 2008 presidential campaigns … these are...
View ArticleA Review of the State of Survey Research and a Likely Voter Model
It is clear a traditional Likely Voter Model based only on self-described interest and self-described likelihood to vote missed the scope of the turnout of 18-29 year olds and Latinos in 2012. With...
View ArticleWhere have you gone Joe DiMaggio?: Athletes no longer considered a good role...
One terrific part about the NBC/WSJ survey is the opportunity to compare attitudes over a long time horizon. We recently repeated a simple question that was asked roughly thirty years ago: “Do you...
View ArticleObamacare at Three: Key Health Care Data
As Obamacare turns three years old this week, we thought it would be interesting to go through recent research and look at key data regarding the issue. Click here to read more.
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The Affordable Care Act: Businesses Report Negative Impact Now and Anticipate...
We just completed a survey which extensively examined the Affordable Care Act (ACA) from the perspective of the owners and C-level executives of franchise and non-franchise businesses which employ...
View ArticlePresident Obama and the Dreaded “K-Word:” Katrina
These have been difficult weeks for the president, but it needs to be understood how potentially consequential these weeks could be on the arc of his presidency. Our latest slide deck looks at key...
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Three of the Missing Storylines from Iowa and New Hampshire
There are just some basic things that have really struck me that do not seem to be getting a lot of attention. The tables below talk about turnout and have an observation about 18 to 29 year old...
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Understanding Republican Intensity in 2016
In a different blog post, we highlighted the surge in turnout among Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire. There are a lot of ways in polling to measure intensity, but the one unmistakable way of...
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